In a trend happening nationwide, we continue to see a recovery among our restaurant clients. Looking at the week-on-week data we can see that the run of positive weekly results has continued, with each day an average of ~5% to 10% higher than the week before. Mother’s Day, however, showed two interesting trends. First, it was a massive uptick from the previous Sunday, but check sizes were also higher than visits, indicating that people visited more expensive restaurants, or at least were ordering food for more people at once.
There is always a bump for Mother’s Day, but the difference this year from the previous trend shows tremendous pent-up demand from the market. Clearly people wanted to spoil mom.
Still, when we look at the fixed-period chart that compares sales to a pre-COVID baseline, we can see that visits and spend are still down, but up from the bottom. We’re a long way from a full recovery, but the trendlines are headed in the right direction.
Industry performance and leading indicators of an improved outlook are top of mind as we enter week 8 of the COVID-19 crisis.
On the restaurant side, sales and visits bottomed out in late March and were down between 60 and 70 percent when compared to pre-COVID trends. Today things have improved so that sales are now “only” down 50 percent as compared with pre-COVID, up from a low of 60-70 percent.
In the chart below, you can see the following:
- Beginning around March 12, 2020, restaurant sales declined rapidly, and by March 18 week-on week sales were down more than 50%.
- The decline continued until late March, by which time sales were down ~60-70% from pre-COVID levels.
- Sales stabilized from late March until around April 7, 2020.
- Since April 7, 2020, we have seen sales start to recover. Every day (except two of them) has seen higher sales than the previous week. The large spike was caused by Easter Sunday.
- ‘Overall, restaurant sales are up 10% from the time sales bottomed out in March and are now at approximately 50% of pre-COVID levels.
When it comes to New Year’s Eve, the wine aisle is the place to be in C-Stores.
As the clock ticked down on 2019, we found that people turned to their C-stores for alcohol to fuel the night. By examining a sampling of sales at 100 C-stores across the Midwest, we saw a significant spike in alcohol sales overall, but wine represented a nearly 400% in revenue over a comparable day. Beer and liquor did well, with a 200% increase, but that’s half of the revenue from wine.
Ah, New Year’s Eve. The night that looms large with visions of popping champagne corks, revelry, and lots of friends. Of course, that vision isn’t for everyone. Some prefer a quiet dinner for two, others just want a beer with friends and still others choose a small gathering with family.
For restaurants, however, it means one thing: profits.
The average check on New Year’s Eve is much higher than on an average night, and people tend to think about things well in advance. This makes it possible for restaurants to both plan ahead and be more profitable. […]